The Winnipeg Jets are set to face the Dallas Stars in Game 1 of their 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs conference semifinal series on Wednesday. Both teams advanced after grueling seven-game battles in the first round. The Stars secured their spot with a 4-2 victory in Game 7 against the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday, while the Jets earned a thrilling 4-3 overtime win in Game 7 over the St. Louis Blues on Sunday. Puck drop is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET at Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg.
Initial betting odds place Dallas as the favorite with a -125 money line (risking $125 to win $100), while Winnipeg is the underdog at +105 (risking $100 to win $105). The total goals over/under is set at 5.5, and Dallas is favored on the puck line at -1.5 (+202).
Prediction Model Insights
Analysis from a sophisticated projection model suggests key opportunities for this matchup. The model, which simulates every NHL game thousands of times, has shown strong performance in the playoffs, particularly on puck-line and over/under picks.
Key Betting Picks
Over 5.5 Total Goals
The projection model indicates that the total goals are likely to exceed 5.5. This pick is supported by both teams` performance in the first round: the Over hit in four of seven Stars games and six of seven Jets games. Winnipeg`s starting goaltender, Connor Hellebuyck, a Vezina Trophy finalist, had a challenging opening series with a 3.85 goals-against average and was pulled from two consecutive starts after allowing five and six goals. Defensive depth for the Jets could be tested, with Josh Morrissey and Logan Stanley questionable for Game 1 due to injuries. Dallas defenseman Miro Heiskanen is also listed as questionable with a knee injury, potentially impacting defensive strength on both sides.
Kyle Connor Anytime Goal Scorer
Kyle Connor was a significant offensive contributor for the Jets in the first round, scoring four goals over seven games. Although his last goal came in Game 5, he has a favorable history against the Dallas Stars, having scored four times in four regular-season games against them during the 2024-25 season. Betting markets price Connor to score at anytime in Game 1 at +140 odds.
