Edmonton Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch has confirmed that Stuart Skinner will start Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final, despite Skinner allowing five goals on 23 shots in the previous game. While Skinner has faced difficulties in the series, the decision to remain with him in net is considered the correct one.
Skinner was pulled after the fifth goal, watching the final 16 minutes and 33 seconds of the decisive 6-1 loss to the Florida Panthers from the bench. The fifth goal, scored by Florida defenseman Aaron Ekblad on the power play, resulted from a perfectly executed passing play where he slipped behind the defense.
Many of the goals scored during that overwhelming performance by the Panthers, including the one by Ekblad, were not solely Skinner`s responsibility. However, his statistics from the past four games are concerning: a .860 save percentage and allowing 2.86 goals more than an average goaltender would have, according to Natural Stat Trick.
When questioned on Wednesday about who would start Game 4, Knoblauch admitted to some hesitation. Despite the temptation to switch to backup Calvin Pickard, especially trailing 2-1 in the series (a “break glass in case of emergency” situation), Knoblauch ultimately decided to give Skinner another chance, believing he has earned it.
Skinner vs. Pickard: Playoff Stats
Firstly, even with moments of poor play, Skinner`s overall performance in the playoffs has been superior to that of Pickard.
| Category | Stuart Skinner | Calvin Pickard |
|---|---|---|
| Save percentage | .894 | .888 |
| GAA | 2.84 | 2.87 |
| GSAA | -1.17 | -1.69 |
Neither Skinner nor Pickard`s playoff stats are comparable to legendary goaltenders like Patrick Roy or Dominik Hasek. However, Skinner holds a small statistical advantage. Considering his very poor start to the playoffs, his improvement towards league-average performance is noteworthy.
Skinner regained the starting position when Pickard was injured and made the most of the opportunity. Over a seven-game stretch, from Game 4 of the second round through the Western Conference Final against the Dallas Stars, Skinner played exceptionally well.
During this period, his save percentage was an outstanding .944, and he saved 6.69 goals more than an average goaltender would have, earning a 6-1 record. Skinner`s strong play was crucial to the Oilers quickly defeating strong Western Conference teams like the Golden Knights and Stars.
Furthermore, relying on Pickard in this critical situation is uncertain. At 33, he has played only 175 regular-season and eight playoff games across his career, suggesting consistency issues. Starting him in what is essentially a must-win game for the Oilers appears potentially riskier than sticking with Skinner.
Should Skinner struggle early in Game 4, Knoblauch has the flexibility to quickly substitute him for Pickard. However, the reverse scenario would be more difficult: if Pickard started and was replaced by Skinner, Skinner would immediately be aware that the coach had lost confidence in the starter and would face immense pressure to perform flawlessly in a comeback attempt.
Therefore, choosing to start Skinner in Game 4 appears to be the most practical decision for Knoblauch. The poor outcome in Game 3 was a team failure, not solely Skinner`s fault, and Pickard has also shown vulnerability. Allowing Skinner a chance to rebound is reasonable, especially since he has already successfully recovered from a difficult patch earlier in these playoffs.
