The matchups for the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs are set, with 16 teams starting their quest for the Stanley Cup. Only eight will advance beyond this initial stage. Here are our predictions for which teams will continue their playoff journey.
In the Eastern Conference, the reigning Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers, are strong contenders to repeat, but they face a challenging series against their rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Florida defeated Tampa on their path to the Cup last year, and Tampa Bay is ready for this rematch.
Another intense rivalry will see the favored Toronto Maple Leafs play against the Ottawa Senators in the Battle of Ontario. It`s the first time in 21 years these two Canadian teams will meet in the playoffs.
In the Western Conference, a major showdown between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars means one of these strong teams will be eliminated in the first round. Dallas has reached the conference finals for the past two years, but returning for a third time will be difficult.
For the fourth consecutive year, the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers will face off in the first round. The Kings have lost the previous three encounters, but 2025 presents a chance to change that.
Before the 2025 NHL playoffs begin, here are our expert predictions for each first-round winner.
Eastern Conference
Capitals vs. Canadiens
Series odds: Capitals -275, Canadiens +220 (via FanDuel)
Both teams enter the playoffs with positive momentum. The Capitals have had a strong season, winning 51 games, highlighted by Alex Ovechkin potentially breaking Wayne Gretzky`s scoring record. The Canadiens, a team in rebuild mode, saw their young players step up to secure a playoff spot.
I believe both teams are somewhat fortunate to be in their current positions. While the Capitals have performed well, their overall metrics may not indicate a true Stanley Cup contender. The Canadiens struggle at five-on-five and have a negative goal differential. In this series, I favor the Capitals` experience, depth, and defense over Montreal. The Canadiens might win a couple of games at home, but that`s likely it.
While the Capitals may have overachieved during the regular season, the Canadiens lack significant offensive power, averaging 2.96 goals per game. I don`t think they have enough offense to keep up with the Capitals. The Canadiens could steal a home game thanks to goalie Sam Montembeault, but that`s probably their limit. Even with uncertainty around Capitals` goalie Logan Thompson, they should prevail.
Hurricanes vs. Devils
Series odds: Hurricanes -280, Devils +225
The absence of Jack Hughes significantly hurts the Devils` chances in this series. Since his season-ending injury, New Jersey`s performance has declined, especially considering they are facing one of the league’s best five-on-five teams. New Jersey`s strong power play could be a factor, but Carolina`s top penalty kill might neutralize it.
The Hurricanes also have weaknesses. Their lack of elite scorers is still an issue. Goaltending for Carolina is also uncertain, with Frederik Andersen`s injury history and Pyotr Kochetkov`s inconsistency. Jacob Markstrom could win a game or two for New Jersey, but it`s still a difficult path for them.
While the Devils` offense is weaker without Hughes, the Hurricanes` scoring depth isn`t exceptional after trading Mikko Rantanen. Carolina scored many five-on-five goals, but they will heavily rely on Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis in the playoffs. Inconsistent goaltending from Andersen and Kochetkov is also a concern. Despite expecting a low-scoring series, the Hurricanes should advance.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators
Series odds: Maple Leafs -192, Senators +158
If playoff success depends on star power, the Maple Leafs are the clear choice. While Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Jake Sanderson are excellent players for Ottawa, they aren`t on the level of Toronto`s core of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares. Toronto also has Matthew Knies, who had a strong season. Toronto`s top roster talent is superior.
However, Toronto`s underlying stats are average. They haven`t been a dominant five-on-five team in terms of scoring chances, and the Senators have been slightly better in some areas. The difference might be in finishing ability, where Toronto has been more efficient. Also, the Maple Leafs` improved defense will challenge Ottawa.
The Maple Leafs often have strong regular seasons but struggle in the first playoff round. This year could be different. Toronto`s talent is significantly higher, led by Auston Matthews and William Nylander. Despite not always being elite at five-on-five, their goal differential is much better than Ottawa`s. Their goalie tandem of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz has been reliable.
The Senators lack playoff experience with their young stars. Experience isn`t everything, but the Maple Leafs have been through this before. Both teams are good on the power play and similar on the penalty kill. This series could be exciting, but it`s hard to see Toronto losing in the first round this year.
Lightning vs. Panthers
Series odds: Panthers -118, Lightning -102
For the fourth time in five years, we have the Battle of Florida in the playoffs. The Panthers finally overcame Tampa last season and return as champions. They`ll need that experience against a reloaded Tampa team aiming for another Cup with stars like Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Tampa Bay has been improving recently, while Florida has been less consistent.
Florida`s recent performance has been affected by Matthew Tkachuk`s absence. While he might be ready for Game 1, his effectiveness is uncertain. Additionally, Aaron Ekblad is suspended for the first two games. Can they immediately perform at their best? They must, as there`s no time to adjust in a seven-game series. I expect a close series, but I`m choosing the team playing better recently.
The Sunshine State rivalry is a highlight of the first round. It`s unusual for a reigning Stanley Cup champion to be an underdog, but that`s the situation for the Panthers.
The main question is Matthew Tkachuk`s availability. He`s been out with an injury. While he`s likely to play, he might not be at full strength, and he`s been crucial to Florida`s playoff success. Meanwhile, the Lightning are playing very well and could be the top team in the East. Nikita Kucherov led the league in points, and Jake Guentzel had a 40-goal season with Tampa Bay. Ultimately, the Panthers seem too injured, and it`s hard to bet against the Lightning`s current form.
Western Conference
Jets vs. Blues
Series odds: Jets -225, Blues +184
The Jets were consistently the top team in the Central Division. Why is this series against a wild card team so uncertain? Because the Blues were one of the hottest teams for three months leading into the playoffs. Coach Jim Montgomery transformed St. Louis into a strong defensive team.
The Blues` defense will be tested against a Jets team that scored a lot of goals. Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor are key scorers for Winnipeg. The Jets also have Connor Hellebuyck, arguably the best goalie in the league. With Hellebuyck and the Blues` defensive focus, this should be a low-scoring series. In close series, luck can play a big role, potentially leading to an upset.
The Jets won the Presidents` Trophy as the league`s top team. However, winning the Presidents` Trophy often isn`t a good sign for playoff success. Only two Presidents` Trophy winners since 2007-08 have won the Stanley Cup. Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck needs to prove himself in the playoffs, despite a great regular season.
The Blues enter the playoffs as one of the hottest teams, winning many of their final games. St. Louis has strong scoring from Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, but forward depth might be a problem against the Jets` defense. While Winnipeg will miss Nikolaj Ehlers, I still expect them to score enough. It will be a tough series, but the Jets should avoid a first-round exit.
Stars vs. Avalanche
Series odds: Avalanche -170, Stars +140
This is the most anticipated first-round series, featuring two Stanley Cup contenders. The stakes are high for both teams. The Stars were more consistent during the season, but Colorado`s recent moves have positioned them to potentially win their second Cup in four years.
The Stars have excellent forward depth, with many 20-goal scorers. However, their defense is vulnerable, especially without Miro Heiskanen. Their defense has struggled to limit scoring chances recently. This is a problem against an Avalanche team with strong offensive threats like Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Martin Necas. In a high-scoring series, the Stars might not be able to outscore their defensive issues.
This series will be exciting. It`s unfortunate that one of these teams will be eliminated early. The Stars strengthened their forward group by acquiring Mikko Rantanen. Dallas`s forward depth is among the best in the NHL. However, not having Miro Heiskanen is a significant disadvantage against Colorado`s offense.
The Avalanche, even after trading Rantanen, added Martin Necas and Brock Nelson. If any team can match Dallas`s offense, it`s Colorado. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are major offensive threats, and their secondary scoring could be key. Artturi Lehkonen was important in Colorado`s 2022 Cup run, and Valeri Nichushkin finished the regular season strongly. This series will likely have many goals and be close, but I`m leaning towards the more battle-tested Avalanche.
Golden Knights vs. Wild
Series odds: Golden Knights -235, Wild +190
The Wild are hard to assess because injuries affected their lineup for much of the season. Early on, they looked good when healthy, but haven`t maintained that level. Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek are back, giving the Wild a chance, but they lack the overall talent and depth of their opponent.
The Golden Knights look like Stanley Cup contenders again. Jack Eichel had a great season, Tomas Hertl has integrated well, and they have a strong defense. While their penalty kill might struggle, their power play is excellent. Filip Gustavsson could potentially outperform Adin Hill and lead to an upset, but Vegas is generally deeper and more skilled.
The Wild have offensive talent in Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek. However, they ranked low in scoring this season. Even healthy, Minnesota might be outmatched in this series.
The Golden Knights didn`t have to fight as hard to reach the playoffs this year compared to last season. Jack Eichel had a career year, and Vegas has strong forward depth despite losing Jonathan Marchessault. The Golden Knights score a lot and should challenge Wild goalie Filip Gustavsson. Vegas is well-positioned for a deep playoff run and should win this first-round series comfortably.
Kings vs. Oilers
Series odds: Oilers -132, Kings +110
For the fourth straight year, these Pacific Division rivals meet in the first round. The Oilers have won the previous three, but could this be the Kings` year? Possibly. This might be Los Angeles`s best chance to beat Edmonton, but the Oilers still have advantages.
Offense has been the Kings` weakness in past matchups. It`s still a concern, but less so now. L.A. has scored a lot recently. Also, the Oilers will be without defenseman Mattias Ekholm for the first round, and their goaltending has been inconsistent. However, Edmonton has Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who are always tough to bet against. They can change a series. Still, the Kings seem like the better team entering this series.
The Kings and Oilers face off in the first round again. It`s a very frequent first-round matchup in playoff history. The Oilers have won the last three series, but this might be the Kings` best opportunity to win.
The Kings have been a good scoring team this season, scoring a lot in their recent games. Los Angeles might not have players as individually dominant as Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, but Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala can score. Kings goalie Darcy Kuemper has played well after being traded. The Oilers will be without Mattias Ekholm. Between that and shaky Oilers goaltending, the Kings have a good chance to win this series.
