As certain as death, taxes, and Max Verstappen dominating, the rumors about his teammate`s potential replacement are a constant in Formula 1.
Liam Lawson`s difficult start with Red Bull has ignited speculation about his future after just two races. Following his 15th-place finish at the Chinese Grand Prix (later improved to 12th due to disqualifications), team principal Christian Horner avoided dismissing rumors that Lawson might be replaced by Racing Bulls` Yuki Tsunoda before Tsunoda`s home race in Japan on April 6.
“Currently, everything is purely speculative,” Horner stated in Shanghai. “We`ve just finished the race. We will analyze the data and assess the situation. We believe Liam has potential, but we are not currently unlocking it.”
A swap would be a dramatic turn for Red Bull`s final race with Honda power in Japan, and a long-awaited, albeit unexpected, chance for Tsunoda, who has long seemed on the verge of a Red Bull opportunity. It would also highlight the inconsistent decision-making that has affected almost every Red Bull driver except Verstappen.
A decision is expected this week.
If a change occurs, Red Bull would essentially admit that two races were enough to determine Lawson wasn`t the right fit, despite previously claiming 11 races provided sufficient data to believe in him. Meanwhile, Tsunoda`s four years of experience and consistent performance were seemingly insufficient—until now. The situation is undeniably perplexing.
Regardless of the outcome, the mere discussion of Lawson`s replacement so early in his tenure—and Red Bull`s lack of immediate denial—is telling. Even with a challenging start, judging a driver after only two races is premature. This situation is part of a recurring pattern for Red Bull Racing and raises a fundamental question: how has a team renowned for its driver development program found itself in this predicament again?
Lawson Under Pressure
Despite being only two races in, Lawson appears to be struggling in the deep end Red Bull has thrown him into. It`s been difficult to watch.
Lawson, and any driver in the second Red Bull seat, faces a triple challenge: Verstappen`s exceptional talent, Red Bull`s increasingly sensitive car (which Verstappen manages to master), and the precedent set by previous drivers.
Following Daniel Ricciardo`s departure in 2019, Pierre Gasly and then Alex Albon, both Red Bull junior program graduates like Lawson, struggled in the second seat. This led to the recruitment of Sergio Pérez, a veteran driver. Pérez started strongly but declined in his later years. By last season, jokes about the performance gap between the two Red Bull cars were common, and they have resurfaced with Lawson`s initial races.
Lawson faced challenges from the start. Pre-season testing issues limited his track time, and his debut was at Albert Park, a track he was unfamiliar with. China was simply a weekend where he couldn`t find his rhythm, which can happen for a new driver with a new team. While these aren`t excuses, they are factors influencing his start.
Public perception also plays a role. Lawson hasn`t won over everyone, and there seems to be a lack of goodwill from some F1 fans.
Lawson replaced the popular Ricciardo at Racing Bulls and then Pérez at Red Bull, and some fans seem to be taking pleasure in his difficult start. Lawson simply capitalized on opportunities, first as Ricciardo`s replacement in 2023 and then full-time in 2024, but public opinion hasn`t been entirely favorable.
Furthermore, by being chosen over Tsunoda—who many saw as more deserving of the Red Bull seat—Lawson is viewed by some as an undeserving figure in Red Bull`s driver selection saga. Recent statements may have reinforced this view.
“Looking back at our careers, I was Tsunoda`s teammate in F3 and beat him,” Lawson told The Telegraph. “In Euroformula and in New Zealand, I also beat him. In F1, honestly, considering all the times he was promoted instead of me in earlier years, no. He`s had his chance. Now it`s my turn.”
On-track incidents have also occurred. At the U.S. Grand Prix last year, Fernando Alonso criticized Lawson`s aggressive racing. A week later in Mexico, Lawson raced closely with Pérez, giving him a middle finger gesture after the race. While his aggressive style impressed Horner and contributed to his promotion, he was privately cautioned for the gesture.
Free Yuki
While Lawson struggled in Shanghai, Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko praised Tsunoda`s recent progress.
“Yuki is performing at his peak,” Marko said. “He is a different driver now compared to recent years. He changed his management, has a new approach, and is more mature. It took time, but it`s now showing results.”
Lawson`s poor start is contrasted by Tsunoda`s strong performances. Despite strategic errors from Racing Bulls costing him points, Tsunoda has maintained the impressive form he has shown for the past two seasons.
In Formula 1`s unpredictable nature, Red Bull`s continued reluctance to promote Tsunoda to the main team is puzzling. Tsunoda embodies the success story Red Bull`s junior program was intended to create.
Tsunoda, a fast and exciting driver, has matured over four years with the second team, exactly as intended. He has improved as a teammate and communicator. After Horner and Marko criticized Tsunoda for radio outbursts, he worked on controlling his temper, aware of becoming a favorite on TV broadcasts for his reactions.
He is now the most experienced driver in the team, while Lawson is the opposite—in and out of the car, deserving a full season with the junior team just as much as Tsunoda deserves a promotion.
With Tsunoda`s contract ending this year, promoting him for 2025 would be a win-win. He could either be competitive alongside Verstappen or join the list of teammates who couldn`t match him. If the latter, Red Bull could move on, promote Lawson or Isack Hadjar after more experience, and focus on Arvid Lindblad as the next academy prospect. If Tsunoda succeeds, Red Bull solves its second driver problem for years.
However, the situation is now complicated. Replacing Lawson now could damage his confidence, while Tsunoda would face immediate pressure in a challenging car. These factors will be considered as Horner makes his decision. If Red Bull believes Lawson`s struggles are a trend, the lessons from past driver changes might prompt an unprecedented early swap.
