The Dallas Stars have an opportunity to clinch their first-round playoff series against the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday, holding a 3-2 lead entering the critical Game 6. Dallas took command of the series with a convincing 6-2 victory in Game 5, overcoming a seasoned Avalanche team that won the Stanley Cup in 2022. To wrap up the series in six games, the Stars must win on the road in Colorado. If the Avalanche manage to force a deciding Game 7, the series would shift back to Dallas.
Heading into the matchup, the Colorado Avalanche are listed as home favorites on the moneyline at -193 odds (betting $193 to win $100), according to the SportsLine consensus. The visiting Dallas Stars are priced as underdogs at +160 (wagering $100 to win $160). The total for the game is set at 6 goals, with the Over slightly favored at -120.
Colorado`s roster features numerous prominent players, with Nathan MacKinnon arguably being the most impactful, having led the NHL in assists and finished second in overall points during the regular season. MacKinnon has contributed seven points through the first five games of this series against Dallas, including three in the Avalanche`s 5-1 win in Game 1. His individual player prop for total points in Game 6 is set at 1.5, and the SportsLine Projection Model has given a top 5-star rating to one side of this particular prop bet. This MacKinnon prop is a central component of today`s featured NHL same-game parlay for the Stars-Avalanche contest.
The SportsLine Projection Model rigorously simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. The model`s top-rated prop selections for each game are available under the `Prop Picks` section, with ratings up to five stars assigned to various player prop betting opportunities. These picks can be crucial for constructing winning parlays or same-game parlays on various betting platforms.
Below are the three highest-rated player prop picks from the SportsLine model for Thursday`s Game 6 showdown between the Stars and Avalanche, along with the potential combined payout if included in a same-game parlay:
Stars-Avalanche SGP (+338 Payout)
- Nathan MacKinnon Under 1.5 Total Points (-146): 5 Stars
- Brock Nelson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-146): 5 Stars
- Martin Necas Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-184): 5 Stars
Notably, all three of the model`s strongest prop recommendations for Thursday`s Game 6 received a 5-star rating and involve Colorado Avalanche players. Starting with Nathan MacKinnon, considered the most prominent player in the game, his series performance includes seven points across five games, averaging 1.4 points per contest. However, over the most recent four games, his average has been exactly one point per game. The model`s projection for Game 6 is significantly lower, forecasting just 0.4 points for MacKinnon. Furthermore, he has failed to surpass his total points prop in his last five home games, averaging only 0.8 points in those appearances.
Next, the model predicts Brock Nelson will exceed his 1.5 total shots on goal prop. Nelson, who joined Colorado from the New York Islanders mid-season, has recorded two assists in this series. SportsLine projects the veteran center to register 2.5 shots on goal. Nelson has averaged 2.2 shots per game in the series and an impressive 3.4 shots over his last five home games, hitting the Over on this prop in all of them.
Lastly, Martin Necas, another player acquired by the Avalanche at the trade deadline, is also projected to go Over 1.5 shots on goal. The model forecasts 2.9 shots on goal for Necas in Game 6. He has successfully exceeded this prop line in eight of his last 15 games when playing against teams with a winning record, averaging 2.7 shots on goal across that sample.
