The Ottawa Senators face elimination as they host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday. Toronto holds a dominant 3-0 lead in the series. The Maple Leafs secured a decisive 6-2 victory in Game 1, followed by back-to-back 3-2 wins in overtime in Games 2 and 3. Historically, only four teams in NHL history have managed to overcome a 3-0 series deficit to advance, with the most recent instance being the Los Angeles Kings in 2014. For the Senators to have any hope of becoming the fifth team to achieve this remarkable feat, they must win Saturday`s game.
The betting odds show the Senators as -113 money-line favorites playing at home, while the Maple Leafs are close behind at -107. The projected total goals for the game are set at 5.5.
Both teams feature prominent stars in this series. For Toronto, key players include Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. Marner had a standout 2024-25 season, achieving his first career 100-point campaign. Matthews, despite missing 15 games, recorded his lowest point total since the abbreviated 2020-21 season. These two Maple Leafs forwards are crucial elements in Saturday`s recommended NHL same-game parlay, which was developed using a sports projection model.
The projection model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times to provide top-rated player prop picks. These picks receive star ratings (up to five stars) for various types of player bets and can be valuable for constructing winning same-game parlays on available betting platforms.
Here are the three highest-rated player prop picks from the model for Saturday`s Maple Leafs-Senators Game 4 matchup, along with the potential payout if combined into a same-game parlay:
Maple Leafs-Senators Same-Game Parlay (+348)
- Mitch Marner Under 1.5 total points (-250): 5 stars
- Auston Matthews Under 1.5 total points (-240): 4.5 stars
- Tim Stutzle Under 0.5 total points (+126): 4 stars
The model expresses high confidence that both Marner and Matthews will finish Saturday`s game with fewer than 1.5 total points; these are rated as the top two picks for this contest. Marner has accumulated six points and Matthews five points so far in the series. However, the model forecasts Marner to earn just 0.3 points and Matthews 0.5 points in Game 4. Both players have stayed under their total points prop in four of their last five games against teams with middle-tier defenses. Regarding the Senators, Tim Stutzle, who led the team in points during the regular season, is also projected to finish under his points prop, which is set at 0.5. The 23-year-old forward has registered only one point in the series. The model projects him at 0.3 points for Saturday. He has finished under his points prop in four of his last five games when the Senators were favored.
