The Toronto Maple Leafs will commence their quest for their first Stanley Cup since 1967 this Sunday as they welcome the Ottawa Senators for Game 1 of their first-round series in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Toronto clinched the Atlantic Division title and held the second-highest point total in the Eastern Conference with 108. Ottawa, still seeking its inaugural Cup victory, emerged as the leading wild-card team in the Eastern Conference this season.
The game will take place at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. Toronto is favored with a -164 money line, while Ottawa is the underdog at +138. The over/under for the total goals is set at 5.5. Before making any Senators vs. Maple Leafs selections, it`s advisable to consult the NHL predictions from a proven model.
A SportsLine Projection Model has simulated each NHL game 10,000 times. It demonstrated profitability during the 2024-25 NHL regular season, particularly excelling with top-rated puck-line and over/under NHL picks, achieving a combined record of 77-53 and generating over $1,600 in profit for $100 bettors. Those who followed these predictions could have realized substantial returns.
Here are the model`s top three recommendations for the Maple Leafs vs. Senators game on Sunday:
Maple Leafs to win (-160 on the money line)
Ottawa achieved a 3-0 sweep in the season series against Toronto, contributing to Toronto not being a heavy favorite in this home Game 1. However, other betting trends significantly favor Toronto. The Maple Leafs generated a total of +1061 for money-line bettors this season and were profitable at home with a +360 record and a 27-14 home win-loss tally. Toronto also enters the 2025 NHL playoffs on a strong 13-3 run since March 17. The model projects the Maple Leafs to maintain this momentum into the postseason, predicting a victory in 62% of simulations. FanDuel Sportsbook offers the money line for Toronto at -160.
Over 5.5 goals (-110)
The initial two games between these teams saw only three combined goals each. However, their most recent encounter on March 15 resulted in a total of six goals. Ottawa also heads into the NHL playoffs on a five-game Over streak. The model indicates that Auston Matthews and William Nylander have over a 50% chance of scoring for Toronto, while Brady Tkachuk has around a 40% chance for Ottawa. The model forecasts a combined goal total of 5.6, leaning towards the Over.
Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (+117)
This dynamic center averaged well over a point per game this season, scoring 33 goals in 67 games, including one in his last three regular-season appearances. He has consistently performed well against the Senators throughout his career, with 25 goals in 35 matchups. He has scored against them twice in three games this year, and the model estimates his chance of scoring in this game at nearly 60%. Caesars Sportsbook lists his anytime goalscorer odds at +117.
Want more NHL picks?
You`ve seen the best bets for Maple Leafs on Sunday. Now, access picks for every game at SportsLine, all from the model that finished the season with a combined 77-53 record on over/under and puck-line picks.
Additionally, Matt Severance at SportsLine is recognized as the No. 1 NHL expert, entering the NHL playoffs on a 120-62 streak on NHL sides picks, yielding $2,490 for $100 bettors. Explore his top bets for the NHL playoffs at SportsLine.
