The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to host the Florida Panthers in Game 7 of their 2025 Stanley Cup Playoff Conference Semifinals series on Sunday. Toronto forced this decisive final game by overcoming a three-game losing streak with a crucial 2-0 road victory in Florida on Friday. The puck drops at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Looking at the latest odds, Florida enters Game 7 as the favorite on the moneyline at -130, meaning a $130 bet would win $100. Toronto is the underdog at +109 (a $100 bet wins $109). The total goals over/under is set at 5.5, and Florida is favored on the puck line at -1.5 with +205 odds.
Analysis from a reputable sports projection model, which simulates each NHL game extensively, provides insights for this matchup.
Key Betting Picks for Game 7:
Total Goals: Over 5.5
Four out of the six games in this series have exceeded the 5.5 goal mark, including all three contests played in Toronto. The series saw high-scoring affairs like Toronto`s 5-4 and 4-3 wins, and a 6-1 loss. Both teams were strong offensively in the regular season, with Toronto ranking 7th (3.26 goals per game) and Florida 15th (3.0 goals per game). The projection model suggests a high probability of the total going Over 5.5.
Player Prop Pick: Carter Verhaeghe Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Carter Verhaeghe has averaged 2.5 shots on goal per game in the series and ranks second on the Panthers in total shot attempts (6.5). He has scored twice in his last four games, including a goal in Game 4. In the crucial Game 6, he led the team with four shot attempts. For a decisive Game 7, the expectation is that the forward, who scored 20+ goals in the regular season, will maintain an aggressive approach.
Player Prop Pick: Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
Auston Matthews netted his third playoff goal in Game 6. As Toronto`s primary offensive threat, he has registered three or more shots in all but one playoff game this year, accumulating 24 shots in this series. In Game 6, he had a team-high four shots. Given that he is one of the few Maple Leafs players finding the back of the net recently, he is expected to be aggressive offensively in Game 7.
