The Edmonton Oilers, featuring Connor McDavid, face a significant challenge as they return home looking to overcome a two-game deficit against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round of the 2025 NHL playoffs. Game 3 is scheduled for Friday at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Edmonton nearly completed a comeback in Game 1, scoring four goals in the third period but ultimately falling 6-5 at Crypto.com Arena. Game 2 saw the Kings deliver a dominant performance, with Adrian Kempe scoring twice in a decisive 6-2 victory, leaving the Oilers searching for answers.
Ahead of Game 3, Edmonton enters as a -136 favorite on the money line, while Los Angeles is the underdog at +115. The over/under for the total number of goals scored is set at 6. A proven hockey model has simulated this matchup 10,000 times and offers its top recommendations.
Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Under 6 goals (-110)
While the first two contests were high-scoring affairs, this trend is not expected to continue as the series moves to Edmonton. Los Angeles had a negative goal differential on the road during the regular season, contrasting sharply with their strong home performance. Additionally, the Oilers` home games towards the end of the 2024-25 season frequently saw the total stay Under the projected line. Despite the Kings` back-to-back six-goal games, the simulation model indicates the total goals will fall below 6 in over half of its runs.
Darnell Nurse Over 2.5 blocked shots (+145)
Veteran defenseman Darnell Nurse has demonstrated a knack for blocking shots against the Kings, tallying 10 blocks in their last three meetings, including six in Game 1 alone. Nurse also boasted a strong plus-minus rating on home ice during the regular season. His ability to impede the Kings` attack at Rogers Place will be crucial for the Oilers` defensive efforts. The odds for him to record over 2.5 blocked shots stand at +145.
Adrian Kempe 2+ points (+230)
Los Angeles winger Adrian Kempe has been in excellent form recently, achieving two or more points in five of his last six games and registering at least one point in 10 of his last 11 contests dating back to late March. His performance on the power play has been particularly effective and will be key as the series unfolds. This prop bet for Kempe to score two or more points is offered at +230.
