The Stanley Cup Playoffs are underway, and Saturday features three Game 1 series, including a highly anticipated matchup between the Colorado Avalanche and the Dallas Stars. These Central Division rivals are well-acquainted, with the Avalanche winning two of their three regular-season games, one in overtime. The Stars concluded the regular season with 106 points, ranking third in the Western Conference, while the Avalanche were close behind with 102 points. This game is packed with star players, especially on the Avalanche side, with Nathan MacKinnon, who finished second in points and tied for the most assists in the NHL this season.
Despite starting Game 1 on the road, the Avalanche are favored to win at -152 money line, while the Stars are home underdogs at +127. The Avalanche are also 1.5-goal favorites on the puck line, and the over/under for total goals is set at 6.5.
A sports prediction model has simulated this NHL game 10,000 times and has identified top player prop picks. These highly-rated picks can be valuable for creating winning parlays on various betting platforms or same-game parlays on any betting site.
Here are the model`s three highest-rated player prop picks for Saturday`s Avalanche-Stars game, including the potential payout for a three-leg same-game parlay.
Avalanche-Stars SGP (+357)
- Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 shots on goal (-130): 5 stars
- Brock Nelson Over 1.5 shots on goal (-146): 5 stars
- Martin Necas Over 1.5 shots on goal (-188): 5 stars
MacKinnon is a top NHL player, demonstrated by his 116 points and 84 assists this season. He is also very aggressive offensively, leading the league with 320 shots. He was one of only two players to reach 300 shots this season. His shots on goal prop is at 3.5, and the model predicts he will exceed this with 4.6 shots in this game. This is rated as a 5-star pick for the Avalanche-Stars game. MacKinnon has exceeded this prop in six of his last eight games against strong teams with winning records and top defenses, averaging 4.9 shots per game in those matchups. Another 5-star prop for MacKinnon is the Under on his total points prop of 1.5.
The model also favors Nelson to exceed his shots on goal prop, also rated 5 stars. Nelson has gone over his shots prop in four of his last five road games against winning teams, averaging 3.6 shots in those games. He is projected to have 2.5 shots on goal in Dallas on Saturday.
The model also predicts Necas to go Over his shots on goal prop, which is also a 5-star pick. His line is set at 1.5. Necas is projected to have 3.0 shots on goal on Saturday and has averaged 2.8 shots per game in his last five road games.
