Dallas Stars coach Pete DeBoer made a contentious move just over eight minutes into Thursday night`s decisive Game 5 defeat against the Edmonton Oilers, opting to remove starting goaltender Jake Oettinger. This significant decision, made with the team`s season on the line in an eventual 6-3 loss, prompted considerable discussion, and DeBoer provided his rationale following the game.
Throughout the playoffs, the Stars struggled notably when trailing, conceding the initial goal in 15 of their 18 contests. Thursday`s Game 5 was particularly unfavorable from the start, with the Oilers scoring quickly on their first two shots.
While Oettinger was not primarily at fault for either of the early goals, DeBoer nonetheless replaced his key goaltender with backup Casey DeSmith. In his postgame comments, DeBoer indicated his intention was to energize his squad, though he also mentioned Oettinger`s historical playoff performance against the Oilers as a factor.
“The main reason you ever make a goaltending change is always to try and spark your group, so that was the top priority,” DeBoer explained. “We`ve extensively discussed the necessity of playing with a lead in this series. Obviously, we were immediately in a 2-0 hole. I didn`t dismiss that lightly, and I didn`t hold Jake entirely accountable.”
He elaborated: “However, the reality is, if you look at last year`s playoffs, he has lost six of seven games when facing Edmonton. And in an elimination game tonight, we gave up two goals on only two shots.”
DeBoer concluded: “It was partially about giving our team a jolt and waking them up, and partly acknowledging that the existing situation hadn`t been effective, and that`s based on a fairly significant history.”
Unfortunately for Dallas, DeSmith was beaten almost immediately after entering the game, allowing a soft shot from Jeff Skinner that made the score 3-0. While DeSmith allowed two further goals later – a highlight-reel play by Connor McDavid and an unlucky bounce off an attempted pass by Evander Kane – those were arguably less the backup`s fault.
Despite DeBoer`s justification, many Stars supporters will likely forever ponder what might have transpired had Oettinger remained in net.
Could he have stopped Skinner`s goal? Would he have made a crucial save on McDavid? Could he have reacted faster to the deflection off Esa Lindell`s skate?
DeBoer referenced a seven-game sample size against Edmonton. However, Oettinger`s overall performance presents a much larger sample: 174 games played over the last three seasons. In that timeframe, his metric of 48.1 goals saved above average ranks him sixth across the entire NHL, according to data from Natural Stat Trick.
Regardless of his specific playoff history against Edmonton, Dallas relies on Oettinger – and compensates him accordingly – to be the goaltender who wins these crucial matchups. It can be argued he should have been given the chance to settle down after the early difficulties.
This postseason, Oettinger has saved an estimated 3.76 goals above average for the Stars, even factoring in his performance in the recent loss. Without Oettinger`s efforts, it`s improbable Dallas would have advanced this far. It`s worth noting that only four teams averaged fewer than Dallas`s 2.5 goals per game in the playoffs, and three of those were eliminated swiftly in the first round.
Dallas needed an offensive spark well before Game 5, which never materialized consistently. Changing goalies didn`t address this fundamental issue. Unless Oettinger was suddenly going to join the offense and score, substituting him seemed like a misstep. DeBoer opted to bench his franchise goaltender, and the team`s season ultimately ended with Oettinger watching from the side.
